Can Francois Fillon survive?
He looked like a shoo-in to be France's next president. Now he's struggling to keep his head above water.
Back in November, François Fillon, a former prime minister of France, won the conservative primary in the race towards the French presidential election. It was a smashing upset, and he looked like a shoo-in for the general election. After five years of a deeply unpopular socialist government, the French people looked set for change.
But Fillon's moment in the spotlight quickly went from blessing to curse.
Shortly after Fillon won the primary, a cascade of revelations hit the presses. It turns out that for nearly a decade, he had employed his own wife as a parliamentary aide with a very generous salary. More worryingly, his wife was also employed by a journal owned by a politically connected billionaire. In both cases, there is little evidence that she did much actual work. Then it came out that, back in 2012, Fillon started and owned a "consulting firm" that received serious dough from corporations for speeches and "advisory work."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The practice is by all accounts legal. French parliamentarians get a lump sum to spend on parliamentary aides, and their spending is discretionary. The practice of putting spouses on the payroll is even commonplace. Fillon's runner-up was once sentenced for running a large fake jobs and kickback scheme involving public housing, and the third man in the primary, former President Sarkozy, is under investigation for allegedly taking suitcases of cash from Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi to finance his presidential campaign and then launching strikes on Libya at least in part to remove the evidence. By contrast, Fillon looks like a choir boy. Still, the man campaigned on his own personal integrity, and right now, the populace is absolutely fed up with self-dealing politicians.
Fillon didn't help himself by panicking in his response to the allegations against him. At first, he tried to own it, embracing the fact that he worked with his family because he trusted them, even disclosing that he hired two of his sons "as lawyers" to work on drafting bills, only to have it later come out that, at the time, they were not technically lawyers, but were still law students, and whatever work they were paid for was well above market.
Fillon then claimed that he was the victim of a conspiracy, something which, in the murky world of French politics, is almost certainly true. The timing of the revelations has certainly been fortuitous for Fillon's adversaries. Still, politics, as they say, is a contact sport, and Fillon is an old hand who knows the game. Fillon eventually apologized, and it seems that the trickle of revelations has died down.
Still, the hit has been noticeable. In two polls, Fillon has been relegated to third place (though within the margin of error), behind Emmanuel Macron, the center-left former economy minister who is riding high in the polls and is trying to perform the unprecedented in French politics, winning the presidency as an independent centrist.
What does the smart money bet on, now?
This pundit's forecast is that the smart money is still on Fillon. Right now, Macron and Fillon are neck and neck in the polls, but half of Macron supporters say they might yet change their minds, while most of Fillon's remaining supporters are dedicated. In other words, Macron has nowhere to go but down, and Fillon, barring an even bigger scandal, has nowhere to go but up. In every French presidential cycle, a supposedly post-partisan centrist rides high in the polls with a strong assist from France's neoliberal media before crashing back down to Earth as French people realize that they really are partisans, and as party machines deliver the votes that high-minded speeches and magazine covers don't. Still, Fillon's margin of error has narrowed down to basically nothing, and the race is now more open than it has ever been.
The question is what happens now. Fillon's success in the primary looked like the beginning of the great return of Catholicism as a potent force in French politics; now it looks like a cautionary tale about a familiar pitfall of religious politics, the saintly savior who turns out to be a hypocrite. The catastrophic incompetence of Fillon's PR during the scandal also calls into question what he will be like as president. While the storm seems to have died down, many in Fillon's camp ran for the exits at the first sign of trouble. Someone who aspires to be a bold reformer as president, as Fillon claims, will need to find some way to hold his majority together and communicate skillfully in order to actually carry out those reforms; thus far, Fillon has failed at demonstrating either skill.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry is a writer and fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. His writing has appeared at Forbes, The Atlantic, First Things, Commentary Magazine, The Daily Beast, The Federalist, Quartz, and other places. He lives in Paris with his beloved wife and daughter.
-
Bormio: 'a great Alpine getaway'
The Week Recommends From snowy slopes and hot-spring spas, to high-end food and wine, this Italian town has something to offer everyone
By Asya Likhtman Published
-
Crossword: March 28, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Sudoku medium: March 28, 2024
The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
By The Week Staff Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Cubans rally for 'power and food' in rare protests
Speed Read The protests came after 18-hour rolling blackouts and food supply shortages
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Iran at the crossroads: have the mullahs lost their grip?
In Depth Iranian voters delivered a 'stinging rebuke' to the regime in parliamentary elections
By The Week UK Published
-
The state of Russian opposition after Navalny
The Explainer Potential challengers to Vladimir Putin have been jailed, exiled or barred from ballot
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Haiti leader agrees to exit amid growing chaos
speed read Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry announced his resignation
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Will mounting discontent affect Iran election?
Today's Big Question Low turnout is expected in poll seen as crucial test for Tehran's leadership
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Sweden clears final NATO hurdle with Hungary vote
Speed Read Hungary's parliament overwhelmingly approved Sweden's accession to NATO
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Zelenskyy says 31,000 troops dead in 2 years of war
Speed Read Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a rare official military death toll
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published