The best thing that could happen to the American economy just happened

Is this the tech boom we've been waiting for?

The Wall Street bull.
(Image credit: AndreyKrav/iStock)

"No recession" may prove a lot more important in the 2020 presidential election than "no collusion."

So what's next for the Trump economy? It's the biggest economic debate happening right now, especially given the huge potential political implications. Team Trump is optimistic. White House economists predict the 2018 upturn in GDP growth to 3 percent is here to stay thanks in large part to the GOP tax cuts for business investment. But most forecasters, whether on Wall Street or at the Congressional Budget Office and Federal Reserve in Washington, are skeptical. They see growth easing back toward the 2 percent pace seen since the Great Recession. What's more, one popular recession predictor — when long-term interest rates fall below short-term yields — is flashing a worrisome warning sign.

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James Pethokoukis

James Pethokoukis is the DeWitt Wallace Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he runs the AEIdeas blog. He has also written for The New York Times, National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, and other places.