Can Democrats really beat the Trump economy in 2020?

What Democrats can learn from George W. Bush about beating an incumbent in a time of prosperity

President Trump.
(Image credit: Illustrated | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images, Drew Angerer/Getty Images, Sylverarts/iStock)

If not for Donald Trump being, well, Donald Trump, the 2020 race might well be a suicide run for Democrats. The record-long economic expansion is in its 121st month. The unemployment rate is at its lowest levels since the Apollo 11 moon landing. And not only do most Americans think the economy is doing pretty well, more and more are giving Trump credit for its strength. An election forecasting model run by Yale University economist Ray Fair is predicting a near-landslide for the GOP, assuming just "modest" economic growth between now and Election Day.

Of course, Trump is Trump. And while his approval numbers are rising, they're still lower than what bullish economic data would normally suggest. Even Fair is a bit squishy about his forecast, adding this caveat: "This analysis, of course, does not take into account the personalities of the candidates."

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James Pethokoukis

James Pethokoukis is the DeWitt Wallace Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he runs the AEIdeas blog. He has also written for The New York Times, National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, and other places.